Experts Warn Turkey’s Pressure on SDF Threatens Syria’s Fragile Stability

Analysts at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) warn that Turkey’s push to rapidly disarm and integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is placing Syria’s Kurdish population in a precarious position and casting uncertainty over the future of ethnic coexistence in the country.

According to RNA, following recent clashes between Syrian government forces and the SDF in Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Aleppo, FDD experts argue that the crisis is rooted not in an isolated security incident, but in deep, unresolved structural rifts between Damascus and Kurdish forces, compounded by Turkey’s increasingly assertive and destabilizing role. They caution that forced disarmament and rushed integration of the SDF, absent meaningful confidence-building measures, could plunge Syria back into a cycle of conflict.

Tyler Stapleton, Senior Director of Government Relations at FDD, stresses that fundamental disagreements between the SDF and Syrian state security forces remain unresolved. He notes that Turkey maintains a hostile stance toward Kurdish autonomy and is pressing for immediate concessions, including the full incorporation of the SDF into state military structures. Such an approach, Stapleton argues, is not stabilizing but dangerous without mutual trust. He adds that Ankara has reached agreements with Damascus on arms and military training, but the underlying objective is to create leverage against the SDF and compel its disarmament. From Stapleton’s perspective, Washington must recognize this dynamic and continue supporting the SDF as a critical partner in the fight against ISIS.

Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Fellow at FDD, views the timing of the Aleppo clashes—coinciding with a visit by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Damascus—as highly significant. He describes Fidan as a key architect of Turkey’s renewed regional influence strategy across the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, making the outbreak of violence unsurprising. Fitton-Brown interprets the subsequent de-escalation as an indication that Damascus does not wish to be seen merely as an executor of Ankara’s ultimatums. He warns that Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, must engage ethnic and religious minorities, including Kurds, with greater sensitivity and flexibility if he hopes to succeed as a national leader.

Offering a sharper critique, Sinan Ciddi, Senior Fellow at FDD, identifies Turkey as the primary destabilizing actor in Syria. He argues that rhetoric from Turkish leaders—from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Foreign Minister Fidan—suggests a willingness to escalate tensions to the brink of armed confrontation. According to Ciddi, Erdoğan exploits anti-Kurdish sentiment to mobilize his domestic political base and divert attention from Turkey’s deepening economic crisis. In this view, divisive narratives, the creation of external enemies, and exaggeration of Turkey’s regional role serve as tools to legitimize this strategy.

Ahmad Sharawi, Research Analyst at FDD, focuses on the broader strategic implications, warning that Washington has invested in the assumption that Ahmad al-Sharaa can stabilize Syria—an assumption undermined by Turkish pressure. Sharawi argues that Ankara’s demand for SDF disarmament leaves the force vulnerable to a fragile state lacking a coherent and disciplined national army. While none of the actors appear to seek an all-out war, he cautions that Turkey’s hegemonic influence over Syrian armed forces could push the country toward renewed conflict and deepen existing fractures.

In conclusion, FDD experts agree that stability in a post-war Syria cannot be achieved through coercive, rushed integration. Without a gradual framework, credible security and political guarantees for the Kurds, and constraints on the destabilizing role of external actors—particularly Turkey—localized clashes such as those in Aleppo risk escalating into a broader crisis, threatening not only relations between Damascus and the Kurds but Syria’s already fragile stability as a whole.

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